EU ETS: “No longer as short”
Point Carbon has just published its annual survey of people working in carbon markets. It’s full of useful insights and I can email you a copy if you want one.
In particular, I was interested in a chart on the expected trading positions of participants representing companies in the EU ETS (below). The proportion of companies with surplus EUAs has jumped about 10 ppts between 2008 and 2009, from 15% to 25%. The proportion that need more EUAs or CERs is something like half (the top four categories).
This tells a clear story: as recession bites, demand for carbon credits will be lower. But by this metric (which admittedly is a bit crude – it’s just the proportion of people who report being short/long and doesn’t account for the volume of emissions they represent), the movement is not so predicted to be big enough to sink the market.